Pendulum
By Dele Momodu; dele.momodu@thisdaylive.com
Fellow Nigerians, unbeknown to many of our people, the battle
for who becomes our next President has already started in earnest.
Never mind the fact that the incumbent President is still firmly in
power even if he’s spent more time outside than inside in recent
times. Despite his absence, President Muhammadu Buhari continues to
exert almost total control on the affairs of state through regular
phone chats with the Acting President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, who
is deeply loyal and committed to their joint cause, and emissaries
who criss-cross the two continents to transmit messages to him and
relevant officials.
Nonetheless, you can’t blame the gladiators for shaping up this
early for the big contest that is looming. It is big because it is
unlikely that the current incumbent President will run again
because of the fragile state of his health. Like joke, like joke,
the Buhari/Osinbajo government is in its third year. By this time
next year, the general elections would just be about six months
away. That’s just too close for comfort.
The Presidential race is always the biggest deal in most
countries, Nigeria in particular. The reason is simple. The
President of Nigeria is probably the most powerful black President
in the world. This is why you find so many perpetual contestants
who never get tired of seeking power. Let me just go straight to
the meat of my message without wasting your precious time on any
long preamble.
Some aspirants have actually started making subterranean moves,
here and there, to prepare the grounds for their eventual launch.
The most obvious ones include former Vice President Alhaji Atiku
Abubakar and former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano. The boldest
and most vocal visible aspirant is the current Governor of Ekiti
State, Peter Fayose who has even announced a date for the official
declaration of his bid for the Presidency. Fayose seems to have
mastered the art and science of politics. He has warned that no one
should underrate him. I won’t because nothing is impossible in our
clime.
Anyway. Let’s move on. The main cause of the early moves is the
general belief in political circles that President Buhari is not
likely to contest in 2019. His poor health has virtually eliminated
him from the race no matter how much and how well he recovers from
his present ailment. I think so too. Baba himself had declared in
one of his rare interviews that he’s never been this sick in his
life. Only the cruellest human being would advise President Buhari
to continue to subject himself to the rigours of the Presidential
office when he returns. To add the vagaries of rough and tumble of
a Presidential race to his recuperation would be inhuman indeed.
God has been very kind to him and there is nothing more to prove or
to achieve. Others must carry on the fight as his able Vice
President, now Acting President has been doing.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had shown interest in becoming Nigeria’s
President since 1993 when he contested the Presidential primaries
of the then Social Democratic Party alongside Chief Moshood Abiola
and Baba Ghana Kingibe. He was persuaded to withdraw from the
contest and throw his weight behind Chief Abiola on the basis of
his relative youth amongst other things. Age, it was said, was on
his side, and he had many years to seek the Presidency. Since then,
he has never stopped dreaming and aspiring. Unfortunately, he has
always just fallen short! He had made his next move in 2003, after
he served as Vice President to President Olusegun Obasanjo from
1999. The “abortive coup” (as it was described), to force Obasanjo
out and bring Atiku in, by the all-powerful Governors of the time
failed spectacularly. The cold war between Atiku and his boss
exploded into full view and became a smouldering inferno. Atiku
instantly became a marked man. He himself would be forced out of
the party he helped to found and had to join others to form another
party. But before too long Atiku was compelled by circumstances to
scamper back to PDP. Not many felt that was a smart move. He was
viewed as being too desperate and unprincipled. This flip-flop has
been his major albatross. And he was not yet done! Atiku again
jumped ship from the floundering PDP when some five Governors
defected and joined the fulcrum of APC. There are already
indications that he may be compelled to abandon ship again but
where to, we don’t know. Some say that he is grooming PDM for this
purpose and has already caused a crisis in his former movement.
There is no doubt that Atiku would make a good leader. He is a
seasoned politician who is known to have the ability to unite
Nigerians because of his extensive networks across the nation. He
also has the penchant for recruiting the best brains to work with.
If he becomes the President, he would be bringing in his wealth of
experience in public service and private business that is almost
second to none. But there are major setbacks against him. One is
how to find the detergent to cleanse or unglue himself from the
sticky mud his former boss President Obasanjo had generously
splashed on him. He’s largely portrayed as a very corrupt and
corruptible leader who may lead Nigerians into temptation and
perdition with his acolytes. Whether this is a fair assessment or
wicked blackmail is his business to deal with but it won’t be so
easy to wish or wash away.
Atiku will find it difficult to clinch the APC ticket. There are
obvious signs that he has already positioned some of his close
associates in PDP, in case of emergency but he may be scammed at
the end of the day if he takes the risk of pulling out of his
present party. He needs to worry about his age. He has already
crossed 70 and it is doubtful if most Nigerians want to be saddled
with another old man who may collapse under the brutal weight of
presidential stress and pressure. He would require more of a clean
bill of health to persuade young Nigerians that he’s not carrying
some health liabilities like others in the past. In summary, we
have a reasonable bridge-builder and veteran administrator who may
be too old and too late in seeking political office.
Next is the former Governor of Kano State, Senator Mohammed Rabiu
Musa Kwankwaso, a man with very vast political and administrative
pedigree. He has gone through the whole gamut of governance at both
executive and legislative levels. His performance as Governor of
the massive state of Kano is an eloquent testimony to the fact that
he may be the one to ignite the infrastructural revolution in
Nigeria. He cuts the image of a frugal Aminu Kano with his simple
mien. His grassroots non-governmental movement known as
Kwankwasiyya Pillars of the Nation is well mobilised and may give
him an edge over most aspirants. He also has in his favour the fact
that Kano State has the highest number of registered voters and may
be able to count on garnering a significant number of these. He is
also expected to draw strength from his former colleagues in the
Governors’ Forum across the nation but no one is sure how relevant
they still are. Kwankwaso is 60 years old and falls the under the
age of 65 that many want as the upper limit for contestants. On the
negative side, he is not likely to have the formidable war chest of
an Atiku Abubakar though this did not stop him from beating Atiku
to third place in their last APC Primaries.
Say what you will, the Acting President, Professor Yemi
Osinbajo, must be factored into the equation by all means. The
reason is that he seems to enjoy a special rapport with his ailing
boss who may prefer to hand over fully to someone he knows well
than risk certainty for uncertainty. Osinbajo has been a very loyal
and dependable ally, the sort that are not common in this clime.
This is no surprise because his vocation as a lawyer, his service
as a teacher and his calling as a Pastor makes him imbued with
integrity and dignity. Osinbajo has also succeeded in bringing
Nigerians together and calming frayed nerves. His handling of the
economy, security and national awareness is quite commendable and
many Nigeria’s applaud his brilliance and performance in steering
the affairs of state to its present comfortable position. His only
worry would come from ethnic jingoists who do not care about merit
but prefer only members of their tribe no matter how useless or
incompetent they may be.
Osinbajo is likely to be vehemently opposed by such powerful
forces who think only about themselves, although it seems to me
that the people of the North are not with them on this occasion.
There is no question that Osinbajo has restored hope and promise to
Nigeria and should ordinarily be allowed to stabilise the polity
and lead us out of the doldrums. The fact that he lacks his own
political platforms may be a great disadvantage because he would
need to lean on his political godfather and kingmaker, Asiwaju Bola
Ahmed Tinubu who seems tired of fixing others into positions of
power without being the ultimate King of Kings himself. However,
Asiwaju is canny and wise and would prefer to be in the hallowed
corridors of power with his protégé in charge than be outside it
particularly given that he is himself ageing and would be over a
couple of years over 65 by the time of the next elections.
There has always been speculation that the Senate President, Dr
Abubakar Bukola Saraki, is interested in being President. He is
eminently qualified to do so. The way he has managed the Senate and
worked assiduously on churning out unprecedented number of very
efficacious bills is a pointer to his effectiveness as a modern and
cosmopolitan leader who understands what the people want and how to
give it to them. His biggest migraine apart from allegations of
corruption and mismanagement of Societe Generale Bank which has
seemingly not gone away, is that he comes from Kwara State. The
State is geographically Northern but culturally Southern. His
father was Olusola. He is Bukola. His wife is Toyin. His sister is
Gbemisola. His Brother is Olaolu. His son is Olaseni. No one could
be more Yoruba than Saraki. However, surprisingly, despite this
great Yoruba credentials, the Yorubas do not also apparently view
him as a Yoruba man but as a Northerner. I do not know how he plans
to overcome that challenge of being neither cat nor rat.
The Governor of Sokoto State, Waziri Aminu Tambuwal, attempted
very briefly to run the Presidential race in 2015 but seemed to
have chickened out and pulled back to settle for the gubernatorial
race, where he eventually emerged successful. It is being mentioned
in informed circles that he may still want to try his luck. As a
former Speaker of the House of representatives and now Governor, he
comes with some intimidating arsenal as e is still clearly well
loved by his old constituency, the Federal legislators. It is not
certain if he would abandon his almost guaranteed second term as
Governor for a not so certain Presidential bid. His antecedents in
this regard would persuade me not to expect too much of a change in
Tambuwal’s circumstances this time around.
The same goes for one of my favourite leaders, Mallam Nasir El
Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State, one of the most cerebral,
experienced and visionary leaders in Nigeria today. He is silently
revolutionising Kaduna State although people see more of the
controversial stuff coming out of that State because of its highly
volatile religious mix of Muslims and Christians. Though he is yet
to declare his interest openly, he is someone to watch…
Pendulum
By Dele Momodu; dele.momodu@thisdaylive.com
Fellow Nigerians, unbeknown to many of our people, the battle
for who becomes our next President has already started in earnest.
Never mind the fact that the incumbent President is still firmly in
power even if he’s spent more time outside than inside in recent
times. Despite his absence, President Muhammadu Buhari continues to
exert almost total control on the affairs of state through regular
phone chats with the Acting President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, who
is deeply loyal and committed to their joint cause, and emissaries
who criss-cross the two continents to transmit messages to him and
relevant officials.
Nonetheless, you can’t blame the gladiators for shaping up this
early for the big contest that is looming. It is big because it is
unlikely that the current incumbent President will run again
because of the fragile state of his health. Like joke, like joke,
the Buhari/Osinbajo government is in its third year. By this time
next year, the general elections would just be about six months
away. That’s just too close for comfort.
The Presidential race is always the biggest deal in most
countries, Nigeria in particular. The reason is simple. The
President of Nigeria is probably the most powerful black President
in the world. This is why you find so many perpetual contestants
who never get tired of seeking power. Let me just go straight to
the meat of my message without wasting your precious time on any
long preamble.
Some aspirants have actually started making subterranean moves,
here and there, to prepare the grounds for their eventual launch.
The most obvious ones include former Vice President Alhaji Atiku
Abubakar and former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano. The boldest
and most vocal visible aspirant is the current Governor of Ekiti
State, Peter Fayose who has even announced a date for the official
declaration of his bid for the Presidency. Fayose seems to have
mastered the art and science of politics. He has warned that no one
should underrate him. I won’t because nothing is impossible in our
clime.
Anyway. Let’s move on. The main cause of the early moves is the
general belief in political circles that President Buhari is not
likely to contest in 2019. His poor health has virtually eliminated
him from the race no matter how much and how well he recovers from
his present ailment. I think so too. Baba himself had declared in
one of his rare interviews that he’s never been this sick in his
life. Only the cruellest human being would advise President Buhari
to continue to subject himself to the rigours of the Presidential
office when he returns. To add the vagaries of rough and tumble of
a Presidential race to his recuperation would be inhuman indeed.
God has been very kind to him and there is nothing more to prove or
to achieve. Others must carry on the fight as his able Vice
President, now Acting President has been doing.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had shown interest in becoming Nigeria’s
President since 1993 when he contested the Presidential primaries
of the then Social Democratic Party alongside Chief Moshood Abiola
and Baba Ghana Kingibe. He was persuaded to withdraw from the
contest and throw his weight behind Chief Abiola on the basis of
his relative youth amongst other things. Age, it was said, was on
his side, and he had many years to seek the Presidency. Since then,
he has never stopped dreaming and aspiring. Unfortunately, he has
always just fallen short! He had made his next move in 2003, after
he served as Vice President to President Olusegun Obasanjo from
1999. The “abortive coup” (as it was described), to force Obasanjo
out and bring Atiku in, by the all-powerful Governors of the time
failed spectacularly. The cold war between Atiku and his boss
exploded into full view and became a smouldering inferno. Atiku
instantly became a marked man. He himself would be forced out of
the party he helped to found and had to join others to form another
party. But before too long Atiku was compelled by circumstances to
scamper back to PDP. Not many felt that was a smart move. He was
viewed as being too desperate and unprincipled. This flip-flop has
been his major albatross. And he was not yet done! Atiku again
jumped ship from the floundering PDP when some five Governors
defected and joined the fulcrum of APC. There are already
indications that he may be compelled to abandon ship again but
where to, we don’t know. Some say that he is grooming PDM for this
purpose and has already caused a crisis in his former movement.
There is no doubt that Atiku would make a good leader. He is a
seasoned politician who is known to have the ability to unite
Nigerians because of his extensive networks across the nation. He
also has the penchant for recruiting the best brains to work with.
If he becomes the President, he would be bringing in his wealth of
experience in public service and private business that is almost
second to none. But there are major setbacks against him. One is
how to find the detergent to cleanse or unglue himself from the
sticky mud his former boss President Obasanjo had generously
splashed on him. He’s largely portrayed as a very corrupt and
corruptible leader who may lead Nigerians into temptation and
perdition with his acolytes. Whether this is a fair assessment or
wicked blackmail is his business to deal with but it won’t be so
easy to wish or wash away.
Atiku will find it difficult to clinch the APC ticket. There are
obvious signs that he has already positioned some of his close
associates in PDP, in case of emergency but he may be scammed at
the end of the day if he takes the risk of pulling out of his
present party. He needs to worry about his age. He has already
crossed 70 and it is doubtful if most Nigerians want to be saddled
with another old man who may collapse under the brutal weight of
presidential stress and pressure. He would require more of a clean
bill of health to persuade young Nigerians that he’s not carrying
some health liabilities like others in the past. In summary, we
have a reasonable bridge-builder and veteran administrator who may
be too old and too late in seeking political office.
Next is the former Governor of Kano State, Senator Mohammed Rabiu
Musa Kwankwaso, a man with very vast political and administrative
pedigree. He has gone through the whole gamut of governance at both
executive and legislative levels. His performance as Governor of
the massive state of Kano is an eloquent testimony to the fact that
he may be the one to ignite the infrastructural revolution in
Nigeria. He cuts the image of a frugal Aminu Kano with his simple
mien. His grassroots non-governmental movement known as
Kwankwasiyya Pillars of the Nation is well mobilised and may give
him an edge over most aspirants. He also has in his favour the fact
that Kano State has the highest number of registered voters and may
be able to count on garnering a significant number of these. He is
also expected to draw strength from his former colleagues in the
Governors’ Forum across the nation but no one is sure how relevant
they still are. Kwankwaso is 60 years old and falls the under the
age of 65 that many want as the upper limit for contestants. On the
negative side, he is not likely to have the formidable war chest of
an Atiku Abubakar though this did not stop him from beating Atiku
to third place in their last APC Primaries.
Say what you will, the Acting President, Professor Yemi
Osinbajo, must be factored into the equation by all means. The
reason is that he seems to enjoy a special rapport with his ailing
boss who may prefer to hand over fully to someone he knows well
than risk certainty for uncertainty. Osinbajo has been a very loyal
and dependable ally, the sort that are not common in this clime.
This is no surprise because his vocation as a lawyer, his service
as a teacher and his calling as a Pastor makes him imbued with
integrity and dignity. Osinbajo has also succeeded in bringing
Nigerians together and calming frayed nerves. His handling of the
economy, security and national awareness is quite commendable and
many Nigeria’s applaud his brilliance and performance in steering
the affairs of state to its present comfortable position. His only
worry would come from ethnic jingoists who do not care about merit
but prefer only members of their tribe no matter how useless or
incompetent they may be.
Osinbajo is likely to be vehemently opposed by such powerful
forces who think only about themselves, although it seems to me
that the people of the North are not with them on this occasion.
There is no question that Osinbajo has restored hope and promise to
Nigeria and should ordinarily be allowed to stabilise the polity
and lead us out of the doldrums. The fact that he lacks his own
political platforms may be a great disadvantage because he would
need to lean on his political godfather and kingmaker, Asiwaju Bola
Ahmed Tinubu who seems tired of fixing others into positions of
power without being the ultimate King of Kings himself. However,
Asiwaju is canny and wise and would prefer to be in the hallowed
corridors of power with his protégé in charge than be outside it
particularly given that he is himself ageing and would be over a
couple of years over 65 by the time of the next elections.
There has always been speculation that the Senate President, Dr
Abubakar Bukola Saraki, is interested in being President. He is
eminently qualified to do so. The way he has managed the Senate and
worked assiduously on churning out unprecedented number of very
efficacious bills is a pointer to his effectiveness as a modern and
cosmopolitan leader who understands what the people want and how to
give it to them. His biggest migraine apart from allegations of
corruption and mismanagement of Societe Generale Bank which has
seemingly not gone away, is that he comes from Kwara State. The
State is geographically Northern but culturally Southern. His
father was Olusola. He is Bukola. His wife is Toyin. His sister is
Gbemisola. His Brother is Olaolu. His son is Olaseni. No one could
be more Yoruba than Saraki. However, surprisingly, despite this
great Yoruba credentials, the Yorubas do not also apparently view
him as a Yoruba man but as a Northerner. I do not know how he plans
to overcome that challenge of being neither cat nor rat.
The Governor of Sokoto State, Waziri Aminu Tambuwal, attempted
very briefly to run the Presidential race in 2015 but seemed to
have chickened out and pulled back to settle for the gubernatorial
race, where he eventually emerged successful. It is being mentioned
in informed circles that he may still want to try his luck. As a
former Speaker of the House of representatives and now Governor, he
comes with some intimidating arsenal as e is still clearly well
loved by his old constituency, the Federal legislators. It is not
certain if he would abandon his almost guaranteed second term as
Governor for a not so certain Presidential bid. His antecedents in
this regard would persuade me not to expect too much of a change in
Tambuwal’s circumstances this time around.
The same goes for one of my favourite leaders, Mallam Nasir El
Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State, one of the most cerebral,
experienced and visionary leaders in Nigeria today. He is silently
revolutionising Kaduna State although people see more of the
controversial stuff coming out of that State because of its highly
volatile religious mix of Muslims and Christians. Though he is yet
to declare his interest openly, he is someone to watch…
Read more https://www.nairalaw.com/as-we-begin-the-journey-to-2019/