Pendulum: The Presidential Election in the State of Osun By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let’s not mince words today and go straight to
the crux of the matter. What transpired in the State of Osun, as my
dear Brother, the Governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, loves to refer
to our State, was not a Gubernatorial, but prelude to Presidential
election.

The interest and resources galvanised for that election
demonstrated that it was a civil war and not a civilised election.
The election was seen and executed as a referendum on the tenure of
President Muhammadu Buhari and its wobbly government. While the
ruling party appeared determined, or maybe ‘desperate’ is the
appropriate word, to win, the main opposition party looked jazzed
and disinterested. But for the merciful interventions of former
Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the President of the
Nigerian Senate, Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki, the PDP candidate,
Senator Nurudeen Ademola Adeleke, could as well have been a virtual
orphan. It was that bad.

What manner of opposition would sit at home, arms akimbo, after
seeing how the President, Vice President, Governors, Ministers and
party Chieftains all invaded, and flooded, Osun as if their lives
depended on it? I fail to understand how PDP can parade over a
dozen Presidential aspirants yet only few of them are showing
irrevocable commitment to serious party matters while the rest are
only pursuing personal agenda. Adeleke was just lucky to be blessed
with a family that had the means to fund his campaign and in
particular a megastar, David Adeleke (aka Davido), who unleashed
his monstrous talent on the campaign.

The ways of politicians are certainly not the ways of ordinary
mortals. I could not believe how they turned Osun into a theatre of
war because of a few thousand votes. I thought that, by now,
Nigeria had passed this disgraceful and embarrassing stage. I have
no doubt that APC merely used the elections in Ekiti and Osun as
dress rehearsals of what to expect in next year’s general
elections. A former President had told me months ago that we should
not expect President Buhari to lose the election and quit quietly
like President Goodluck Jonathan did in 2015, but I disagreed most
vehemently. Thank God, we did not take a bet because with what
happened in Osun, in particular, I don’t see the APC apparatchik
agreeing to vacate power without a truculent fight. Many people,
Nigerians and non-Nigerians have come to the incontrovertible
conclusion that what we currently have is an army of occupation and
we should accept our fate with equanimity.

But no country can afford not to have a virile opposition. This
is why it is sad and tragic that those who were in opposition only
yesterday are perpetrating the same unfortunate acts we
collectively rejected and dismissed not too long ago. It is also a
shame that political parties have become over-proliferated in our
dear beloved country. This has made it difficult for us to have a
unified resolve to challenge what may ultimately turn into a
Gestapo and most oppressive civilian regime.

The PDP that should fight back stoutly to give a good fight is
already gasping for breath because of multiple ambitions of
individuals who may choose to turn coat at the drop of a hat. From
the multitude of PDP aspirants and even the cacophony of
permutations about who can challenge Buhari to a duel, it is
becoming clear, to discerning minds, that there are only two,
possibly three serious challengers and no more. Of these three, two
currently stand tall. One is old and the other is young. It seems
patently obvious, from the recent shenanigans that we have seen,
that President Buhari and his people would do everything humanly
possible to avoid confronting either of these two candidates at the
polls next year.

Moving on, let me say with every emphasis I can muster, no
candidate from the core North can compete against, and defeat,
Buhari simply on the basis that they come from the core North. It
is practically impossible. The jejune argument that PDP should pick
a candidate who can divide the core Northern votes is either a joke
carried too far or a deliberate decision to hand power back to the
incumbent on a platter of gold. What the PDP needs urgently is a
candidate who can explode its votes in the entire South and the
North Central. I do not hereby advocate for any candidate. I make
my thesis only on the basis of empirical analysis. Buhari lost
elections three consecutive times because he couldn’t saunter
across those zones. If you doubt my assertion, let’s examine the
figures, in practical terms.

In 1999, PDP scored 4,226,330 in South South while ANPP/AD
recorded 1,205,087. PDP 2,307,712 in South East and ANPP/AD
978,997. PDP 1,092,216 in South West and ANPP/AD 4,366,993. This
was Chief Olu Falae versus General Olusegun Obasanjo. The Yoruba
can mobilise humongous votes when they feel they have their own in
the race. The sentiment was in favour of Falae. PDP 3,675,027 in
North Central and ANPP/AD 1,461,840. PDP 3,552,354 in North East
and ANPP/AD 1,412,426. PDP 3,887,536 in North West and ANPP/AD
1,684,934.

In 2003, PDP jumped to 6,953,679 in South South and ANPP
365,161. PDP 3,161,150 in South East and ANPP 253,079. PDP
5,031,288 in South West and ANPP 195,024. PDP 3,257,956 in North
Central and ANPP 1,993,705. PDP 2,941,208 in North East and ANPP
3,694,367. PDP 2,764,846 in North West and ANPP 6,453,437. This was
the year Buhari started contesting the Presidency. On this occasion
he contested on the platform of ANPP.

In 2007, PDP had 6,118,608 in South South and ANPP 365,161. PDP
4,985,246 in South East and ANPP 253,079. PDP 2,836,417 in South
West and ANPP 195,024. PDP 3,376,570 in North Central and ANPP
1,744575. PDP 1,832,651 in North East and ANPP 3,660919. PDP
3,466,924 in North West and ANPP 6,453,437. Buhari again contested
as ANPP Presidential candidate.

In 2011, PDP recorded 6,118,608 in South South and ANPP 49,978.
PDP 4,985,246 in South East and ANPP 20,335. PDP 2,786,417 in South
West and ANPP 321,609. PDP 3,123,126 in North Central and ANPP
1,612,999. PDP 1,832,622 in North East and ANPP 3,624,910. PDP
3,395,724 in North West and ANPP 6,453,437. Buhari was again the
flagbearer of the ANPP.

In 2015, PDP secured 4,714,725 in South South and APC 418,590.
PDP 2,464,906 in South East and APC 198,248. PDP 1,821,416 in South
West and APC 2,433,193. PDP 1,715,818 in North Central and APC
2,411,013. PDP 796,580 in North East and APC 2,848,678. PDP
1,339,709 in North West and APC 7,115,199.

The import of these figures is that whosoever can checkmate
Buhari from the Middlebelt downwards would always defeat Buhari.
This does not necessarily mean such a candidate should come from
these regions, but it would be ideal. A candidate with cross-over
appeal from the North East and North West would also do well
provided he does not believe that his place of origin means he
should concentrate his effort in that region or adjunct region. PDP
should forget the pipe dream of competing favourably against Buhari
in the North East and North West. He has consistently won
overwhelming in those two regions. However, if President Buhari can
be restricted to those two zones while opposition locks down the
other four zones of the country, then the prospects of the
opposition PDP resoundingly beating the APC candidate becomes much
brighter.

PDP or any intelligent party must apply Isaac Newton’s third Law
of Motion: “actions and reactions are always equal and opposite.”
Buhari would be 76, his opponent must be the opposite by being much
younger. 70 percent of the electorate are under the age of 45.
Opposition requires a candidate who can readily galvanise a
multitude of first-time voters. Nigeria is long overdue for a
candidate in the mould of Barack Obama, an energetic and
cosmopolitan leader. Politics as a game of numbers must be
approached meticulously. Buhari has stupendous State appurtenances
and resources to deploy, his opponent must have access to similar
armoury or have sufficient wherewithal to match the substantial
resources of State and not be a scavenger in search of morale,
audacity and finance.

I’m not sure about what the third force can produce. I have
expressed this publicly and privately. There are those like my dear
friend, former Governor Donald Duke, Frank Nweke Jnr. and others
who feel a third force can fly next year. I sincerely doubt this.
Indeed, I would like to dismiss this as mere wishful thinking.
There may also be a fourth force, the Take Back Nigeria Movement
being propelled by Omoyele Sowore who has worked extremely hard
across Nigeria, but I believe he still has a lot of distance to
cover. The reason is simple. He would have gone very far if he
could muster the support of other younger candidates. Same with
Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Moghalu and others. I truly wish there
could be a consensus candidate, but alas!

Where do we go from here, realistically? I think the toughest
opposition can still come from PDP if it can rescue itself from
certain interests and manage to pick a kamikaze candidate who is
not docile and who is ready to fight all the way with everything at
his disposal. No meek or lily-livered gentleman can fight and
conquer Buhari next year. The lesson to pick from Osun, while
litigation processes are being cooked, is that the next
Presidential election is not going to be the stuff of conventional
warfare. A serious opposition must prepare for the use of ballistic
and anti-ballistic missiles. This is the reality of what to
expect.

TURKEY, A COUNTRY TO VISIT IN A LIFETIME

If you follow me on social media, you would have noticed my love
for Turkey in recent times. It is not my fault and, trust me, I’m
not being hyperbolic. Turkey is one of the most beautiful countries
I have discovered since I started flying out of Nigeria in 1985. I
have flown, landed and taken off on all continents, but Turkey
holds a special space in my heart. Turkey reminds me of the United
Arab Emirates in its majestic grandeur, but it is much more natural
and less glittering.

My first trip to Istanbul was about seven years ago, but I did
not stay long, and I could not explore the country much. Somehow,
the importance of Turkey, as a hybrid country, in the comity of
nations, did not register well in me. I promised to return, but was
not sure when. That promise came to fruition early this year when I
joined the woman of God, Reverend Mother Esther Abimbola Ajayi and
her family on an unforgettable voyage to Turkey at the invitation
of her adopted son, Aydin Adem Yildirim, otherwise known as Adesoji
Ajayi. Aydin is from the popular district of Cappadocia and I must
confess that this district is simply breath-taking.

It was in Cappadocia that I slept in a cave for the first time.
The cave hotel was just surreal. The ancient city had so many
artefacts from antiquity dated before the birth of Jesus Christ. We
saw and visited some extra-ordinary museums and underground cities.
Cappadocia is famous for hot-air balloon flights which attracts
hundreds of people to the rural township daily. There are several
airports within a few hours away.

We travelled to the Syria Refugee camps and witnessed how
wonderful Turkey treats victims of a most debilitating war and
other refugees fleeing from home and loved ones. We travelled to
Istanbul, the gateway to Turkey and it was another exceptional
experience. It was in Istanbul I spent my birthday, May 16, and was
treated to a surprise cruise by the Ajayis. From Istanbul we flew
to Bodrum, a city on the Peninsula. Bodrum is a playground for the
rich and famous. We had so much fun. I left Bodrum with a promise
to explore Turkey further.

I was back in Istanbul, Ankara and Cappadocia last week and it
proved to be such a roller-coaster trip as I held meetings with
several important personalities. Hosted by the Butik Travel Group
and Aydin, my itinerary was well organised. The efficiency was top
rate.

I was warmly received and treated like a king. I held meetings
with prominent business leaders like M. Arif Parmaksiz, Member of
Union of Chambers Turkey and President of Nevsehir Chamber of
Commerce; I. Hakki Aydogan, General Secretary of NTSO, Cappadocia;
I also met with leading political figures like Atilla Secen Mayor
of Nevsehir, Mustafa Acikgoz Member of Parliament Nevsehir, Mustafa
Rumeli and other top officials at Invest in Turkey, Fatma Ozsoy,
Head of Advertising and Promotion, Ministry of Culture and
Tourism.

Of course, my constituency, the journalists were not left out.
Yilmaz Karaca, President of Federation of Turkish Journalists,
Bayram Ekici, President of Association of Turkish Journalists in
Nevsehir, Cappadocia, Chairman of the Association of Turkish
journalists in Ankara and Metin Yildrim, Aydin’s uncle, and
journalist based Nevsehir; and many others. My trip was covered in
several Turkish newspapers and I felt like a celebrity of sorts in
this foreign clime. There are plans for me to return soon to Turkey
to further form and cement partnerships in the area of investment
opportunities and tourism. I am convinced that our nation needs
cordial relations with countries such as these in order to tap from
their related experiences and expertise.

Words can hardly express my gratitude to my hosts and
benefactors on both of my recent trips to Turkey. My sincere
appreciation go in particular to the Ajayis, Aydin and his father,
Ali Yildrim, who graciously and generously further opened my eyes
to the magnificent country that Turkey is on this my latest
trip.