Election voter
Worrisome
Election voter
Worrisome Decrease in Voter Turnout– By Moshood
Isah
The controversy that shrouded the outcome of the just concluded
Osun Governorship elections amidst lack of confidence in the
electoral commission may just be another reason behind diminishing
turnout in Nigeria’s election ahead of 2019 general elections.
Since the 2015 general elections, statistics have shown that while
the Independence National Electoral Commission (INEC) may have
steadily improved in deployment of materials and conduct of
elections generally, this has not translated into increased voter
turn out during elections. This is no doubt a worrying trend ahead
of the upcoming 2019 general elections.
With just over 29million Nigerians coming out to vote in 2015
and just over 15million determining the President out of 67 million
registered voters, , it is left to be seen if the current 84
million registered voters will translate into increased total votes
cast.
Unfortunately, recent off circle elections does not give a
good indication.
Since after 2015 elections, Nigeria has successfully conducted
up to six Governorship elections, three of which came within the
last one year, with the latest one being the just concluded Osun
Governorship election. Interesting trends and exciting figures were
recorded across all three elections.
On 18thNovember, 2017 the Independent National Electoral
Commission conducted a Governorship election in Anambra amidst very
low turnout with the incumbent Governor of All Progressive Grand
Alliance (APGA)- Willy Obiano emerging victorious. This was
followed by the Ekiti Governorship elections held on 14thJuly 2018
with opposition party All Progressive Congress defeating the ruling
People’s Democratic Party (PDP). There are still reactions trailing
the results from the just concluded Osun Governorship elections
after supplementary polls in seven Polling Units cutting across 4
Local Government where elections were either cancelled or did not
hold.
From all the off-circle governorship elections, available data
from YIAGA AFRICA who observed all the off-circle Governorship
elections after 2015 shows that Independent National Electoral
Commission has consistently improved on deployment of election
materials to polling units. Having deployed over 500 observers to
sampled polling units, YIAGA AFRICA – Watching The Vote Project, is
the largest citizen movement on credible election observation.
Reports from the data shows that in the just concluded elections in
Osun State, as at 9:00 am on election day, 95% of polling units had
commenced accreditation and voting. This is a slight
improvement on the 91% observed in Ekiti State few months
ago. Interestingly, during the Anambra Governorship
elections, as at 10:00am only 75% of polling units were opened and
by 12:00 noon 92% of polling units were opened.
The steady increase in percentage in commencement of
accreditation during elections shows appreciable improvement in the
deployment of sensitive materials to polling units. More so, the
creation of Registration Area Centres (RACs) at various wards has
also enabled faster deployment of electoral materials to polling
units.
However, the inconsistent nature of turnout of voters for
elections should be a source of worry ahead of the 2019 general
elections considering what is being recorded in the off-circle
elections pre and post 2015 general elections. The 2018 Osun
Gubernatorial polls saw the highest number of political parties
ever to compete for an election in the history of Nigeria’s
democracy with 48 parties presenting candidates for the elections
compared to 20 we had in 2014. Interestingly an additional 200,000
prospective voters registered to vote which increases total number
of registered voters from 1.4 million to over 1.6million.
Unfortunately, these interesting figures doesn’t match with the
voter turnout for the 2018 Osun Governorship elections. As a matter
of fact, Voter turnout dropped from 54% in 2014 to 45% in the just
concluded elections.
The situation in Anambra state last year was even more
discouraging as less than a quarter of the total number of
registered voters participated in the November 2017, governorship
election. The Returning Officer of the election, Zana Akpagusaid, a
total of 2,064,134 residents registered as eligible voters for the
election with the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
Of this number, only 457, 511, about 22.16 per cent, came out on
Election Day to be accredited.
Similarly, with a registered voter of over 1.6 million, the Ondo
state Governorship elections in 2016 recorded 35 % voter turnout
having seen about 585 thousand people coming for accreditation.
While Ekiti State Governorship elections recorded just over 44
percent turn out in 2018 compared to 50% turn out it recorded in
2014, Kogi State similarly presented just less than 40 percent of
registered voters for its Governorship election that was conducted
between November and December 2015 which is relatively poor.
In a nutshell, since after the 2015 general elections, all the
off-circle elections conducted has not crossed the 50% voter turn
out mark. This is worrisome because the electoral commission on its
own part has made effort to improve in the conduct of elections
since introduction of the smart card reader and use of Registration
Area Centres which has enabled early deployment of materials. While
INEC is the main body responsible for administering elections in
Nigeria, It is pertinent to know that without effective deployment
of security and other stakeholders, the commission may just be
working in a vacuum.
Moshood Isah is the media officer of YIAGA AFRICA