National Assembly’s resumption and unending leadership battle

JOHN AMEH writes on the intrigues, drama and tension that may
play out at the National Assembly as from this week after the
defection of Senate President Bukola Saraki and Speaker, House of
Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, from the ruling All Progressives
Congress to the Peoples Democratic Party

Gradually, but steadily, the primaries of the political parties
are rounding off. Eyes, no doubt, are on the ruling All
Progressives Congress, the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party
and what the outcome of the intra-party elections will be for the
February 2019 general elections.

While the primaries wind down, attention will turn to the
National Assembly again, beginning from this Tuesday when the
senators and members of the House of Representatives will reconvene
in Abuja.

The battle for the control of the legislature will return to the
front burner and the attendant implications for the survival of
Senator Bukola Saraki as the Senate President and Mr. Yakubu Dogara
as the Speaker till 2019.

The call for the resignation or impeachment of the two presiding
officers, particularly, Saraki, dominated the political space
before the party primaries shifted it temporarily to the backstage,
but it will surely return now that the primaries are almost
dusted.

The thought of a government, led by the APC, having its
legislature headed by the opposition, has been nightmarish for the
ruling party.

A cat and mouse relationship between Saraki, many aggrieved
lawmakers and the leadership of the APC, snowballed into the July
24 defection of 14 senators from the APC to the PDP.

At the House of Representatives, 37 members also dumped the
ruling party. Saraki crowned the unfolding drama in the Senate late
July by defecting to the PDP!

At the House of Representatives, Dogara too, after months of
speculation, finally dumped the APC for the PDP on September 14,
resulting in the current bitter pill that the APC has to either
swallow or spit out if it would not want to have a Senate
President, Speaker and Deputy Senate President being members of the
PDP in an APC-dominated National Assembly.

The current membership standing in the Senate suggests that the
APC has 55 senators (including two new senators waiting to be
inaugurated); PDP, 50; APGA, 2; and ADC, 2. In the House, the APC
also leads with 192 members; PDP, 156; APGA, 5; ADC, 4; Accord, 1;
SDP, 1; and 1 vacant seat.

Observers hold the view that this ‘odd’ setting is the next big
fight for the ruling party, same as Saraki and Dogara. They have
yet the toughest survival battles to hold their offices ahead of
2019.

The National Chairman of the APC, Mr. Adams Oshiomhole, did not
mince words when he spoke for the party, demanding the resignation
of Saraki after the latter dumped the party. Oshiomhole did not
also pretend when he made it clear that the party would do
everything within its powers to retrieve the seats from Saraki and
Dogara.

Speaking shortly after Saraki left the APC and later declared to
contest the 2019 presidential poll, Oshiomhole had stated, “He will
not only be impeached, we will work hard to have him defeated as a
senator in his own Senatorial district come 2019 by the people of
Kwara State who are fed up with Saraki.”

He added, “Go and check the results of the elections that made
him a senator and you will find out that the President got more
votes from Kwara Central than Saraki got.

“So, he can’t claim that the votes the APC got from his
Senatorial district were because of him. That is why his leaving
(the APC) is of no political consequences as far as electoral
issues are concerned. We tried to talk to him, not out of fear, but
out of conviction that as a presiding officer, there are rules of
engagement.”

Political analysts say the shape of things to come will depend
on a number of factors. Questions have been asked. Will APC still
retain its majority lead in the National Assembly after the
primaries?

How many more defections, either way, are expected, owing to
post-primary grievances? Will impeachment of presiding officers be
an attraction after the primaries or will members focus more on
planning for either the next elections or an exit plan from the
National Assembly in 2019?

Whichever way things pan out, observers hold the view that they
will either work in favour of Saraki and Dogara or against them.
How they play their own game amid the intrigues ahead will also
determine their survival as presiding officers.

A senior lawyer, Chief Godwin Isa, says, “There is nothing
constitutionally wrong with Saraki and Dogara keeping their
positions as Senate President and Speaker even though they will now
belong to the minority party in the National Assembly. This is
still assuming that the PDP will remain the minority after the
primaries.”

Isa explains further that the leadership of the legislature is
not in the real sense a majority party affair.

He adds, “According to Section 50 (1) (a) of the 1999
Constitution as amended: ‘A President and Deputy President of the
Senate, shall be elected by the members of that House from among
themselves’.

“The above section doesn’t bar lawmakers from the minority
political party in the parliament from seeking the position of
presiding officer.

“The law also doesn’t say that a Senate President, who becomes a
member of the minority party should relinquish that position.

“Section 50 (2) of the Constitution reads that: ‘The President
or Deputy President of the Senate or the Speaker or Deputy Speaker
of the House of Representatives shall vacate his office:

(a) If he ceases to be a member of the Senate or of the House of
Representatives, as the case may be, otherwise than by reason of a
dissolution of the Senate or the House of Representatives; or

(b) When the House of which he was a member first sits after any
dissolution of that House; or

(c) If removed from office by a resolution of the Senate or the
House of Representatives, as the case may be, by the votes of not
less than two-thirds majority of the members of the House.’

“In simpler language, Saraki and Dogara can continue to remain
presiding officers under the law unless they are impeached by two
thirds majority of lawmakers.”

Taken that there are 109 senators, to remove Saraki will require
the vote of 73 senators, while in the House of Representatives with
360 members, the APC needs 240 votes to sack Dogara. Will PDP
senators or Reps vote to impeach Saraki or Dogara? This doesn’t
seem likely, hence the impeachment expectation may become a mirage,
a tough call.

Isa notes that many would also argue on the side of
precedents.

“Saraki or Dogara won’t be the first head of parliament from the
minority party. In the Second Republic, the Speaker of the House of
Representatives was Edwin Ume-Ezeoke of the Nigeria Peoples Party,
and we all know that the party in control was the National Party of
Nigeria of Alhaji Shehu Shagari.

“What about the recent 7th Assembly (2011-2015) when the current
Governor of Sokoto State, Mr. Aminu Tambuwal, remained the speaker
of the House of Representatives, having abandoned the majority
PDP,” he says.

An Abuja-based Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Mr Paul Ananaba, says
putting pressure on the presiding officers to resign is not the
answer but a matter for the judiciary to intervene and resolve.

Ananaba states, “If anyone feels that they should resign and
they have not resigned, the person should head to court, not to put
them under pressure.

“There is no provision of law requiring them to resign or leave
their seats because they left one party to the other. In any case,
there are crises in the political parties, which in themselves are
sufficient grounds for defection.”

Another SAN, Mr Ahmed Raji, shares a similar view, saying that
in a presidential system of government, defection is allowed since
the survival of the government does not depend on the number of
members it has in the legislature, in contrast to a parliamentary
system.

He says, “Whether the entire members of the National Assembly
move from the APC today to another party, it will not affect
(President Muhammadu) Buhari; he will remain the President.

“Strictly speaking, let the facts be placed before the court to
decide. There should be a judicial intervention, since the power to
declare a seat vacant in this case even lies with the presiding
officers.

“Finally, the current tenure is almost over and what purpose,
other than heating up the polity, will impeach a presiding officer
of the National Assembly serve at this period? Let the courts
intervene.”

However, a civil society organisation, People’s Parliament
Watch, canvassed the resignation of Saraki and Dogara on moral
grounds.

Its Director, Dr. Maxwell Agada, says, “Sometimes, on moral
grounds, certain issues are best resolved.

“An honourable path is for the affected presiding officers to
resign. After all, the legislature is an arm of the same APC, which
you have dissociated yourself from further dealings with it.

“On moral grounds, they will say let us also vacate their seats
for them, much as the law provides for two-thirds majority vote
should there be the need for impeachment.”

On its part, the Parliamentary Democrats Group, made of members
of the House of Representatives backing the presiding officers,
warned that the lawmakers would oppose a move to remove Dogara.

Its spokesman, Timothy Golu, states, “Much as we believe that
this is an exercise in futility, we want to state categorically
that any attempt to instigate crisis or undermine the authority,
right or position of the speaker on account of this political
action, which is legal and constitutional, will meet a brickwall
from members.”

But in the Senate, echoing the desire of Oshiomhole, Senator
Ajayi Boroffice held the view that impeachment remained the next
step against the presiding officers, especially Saraki, for
allegedly disgracing the APC.

He argued that two-thirds majority could also mean two-thirds
majority of the sitting quorum of the Senate.

Boroffice adds, “We are the majority party and what has happened
is an aberration and this kind of aberration will never happen
again.

“The President (Buhari) must be supported in fulfilling his
mandate which has been obstructed by the leadership of the
Senate.

“If the constitution says two-thirds of all members, it means it
will require two-thirds of 109.

“But if it says two-thirds of members, it will be two-thirds of
all members who are present and that is what I will opt for.”

As the lawmakers reconvene this week, precisely on Tuesday,
Nigerians will wait to see the plans of members on both sides of
the divide and how Saraki and Dogara will navigate the slippery
terrain.