Atiku And The Rise Of Peter Obi By Reuben Abati

Shortly after former Vice President Atiku Abubakar became the
flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on October 6,
party members and other stakeholders began to recommend running
mates for him and a short list began to feature on the front pages
of Nigerian newspapers.

Some of the names that were mentioned included former Governor
Peter Obi, former CEO/Managing Director, Assets Management Company
of Nigeria (AMCON) – Mustapha Chike-Obi, former Minister of
Agriculture and AfDB President – Akin Adesina, former Minister of
Finance and Supervising Minister of the Economy – Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala, former CBN Governor – Charles Soludo, and Deputy
Senate President – Ike Ekweremadu.

For about five days, there were theories and permutations, and a
comparison of the credentials of the proposed running mates. Former
Vice President Atiku Abubakar has acted pro-actively by quickly
putting an end to the speculations. He met with the party
leadership, consulted with other interest groups and promptly
announced Peter Obi. If this is a sign of how he intends to run
Nigeria if he becomes President, then he is off to a good start. In
the past week, he also did something else that was clever. He made
peace with his former boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo. He asked
for Obasanjo’s blessings and Obasanjo, wearing his hat as a
seasoned political pragmatist and ebora strategist, endorsed
Atiku.

The speech delivered by Obasanjo on that occasion is an elegant
study in the art of being important. President Obasanjo said he has
forgiven Atiku for his many sins, which he Obasanjo had complained
about previously. He described him as someone who has a knowledge
of business, who is less inflexible and a “Wazobia” man. There were
subtle digs at the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, when
Obasanjo advised Atiku not to recruit only kith and kin and try to
run an inclusive government. In the same speech, Obasanjo reminded
Atiku of his indebtedness to the Obasanjo legacy and the need to
sustain that legacy. He also set an agenda for the man he described
as Nigeria’s President-to-be. He even said “Insha Allah”. Obasanjo
in that well-composed speech, practically killed many birds with
one stone in many incantatory voices: boss, statesman, and
letter-writer.

It was Atiku’s second biggest endorsement since he got his
party’s ticket – the first being his victory in Port Harcourt.
Obasanjo’s endorsement is particularly significant given the
history of the relationship between both men. To add that Obasanjo
has voice, influence and authority is to state the obvious, and we
need to tell those who argue that Obasanjo has just one vote that
they are politically dumb! Atiku’s boss has given him a new
testimonial that has refurbished him. Obasanjo who once tore his
membership card of the PDP, has also more or less re-oxygenated the
party’s Presidential aspiration. The panic that this has caused in
the Buhari camp is perfectly understandable even if the resort to
name-calling and abuse by the President’s foot-soldiers may be
counter-productive in the long run. It won’t make Obasanjo and his
associates change their mind. Atiku’s gain is Buhari’s loss.

Then came the rise of Peter Obi… Without a doubt, all the
persons on the shortlist of running mates for Atiku have relative
strengths. They have all proven their mettle in the public arena.
But with Peter Obi already chosen, we need not indulge in any
detailed comparison except to note that very important to the
selection process would have been, not just geo-politics, but also
such factors as the temperament of the individual, the chemistry
between the principal and the deputy, electoral value,
international exposure, acceptability by key stakeholders and
public persona.

My take is that former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi is
bound to strengthen the chances of the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) in the scheduled 2019 Presidential elections. He will prove
to be an asset to the Atiku campaign and also to the Nigerian
government if the PDP wins the Presidential election. The
announcement of his name has generated so much excitement in
Igboland, particularly in his home state of Anambra where people
broke out in dancing jigs at beer parlours, and free drinks were
declared. Across the South East, his Igbo kinsmen are also
similarly excited. Those who know him in politics and business
attest to his good character, self-discipline, competence and
fair-mindedness. I want to congratulate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar for
choosing wisely and I want to disagree with those who argue that
the Presidential candidate of the PDP should have chosen his
running mate from the South Western part of the country.

The choice of a running mate of Igbo extraction is a politically
deft move. The last time Igbos held the number 2 position in a
civilian government was way back in the Second Republic (1979 -83).
Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, they have either been
Senate President or heads of key agencies (under President
Obasanjo) or Deputy Senate President and generally junior
operatives (under President Buhari) or held critical Ministerial
positions or headship of agencies and departments –indeed the
entire economic sector (under President Jonathan). But Ndigbo’s
main interest is the big job: the Presidency of Nigeria. The choice
of Peter Obi and his likely emergence as Vice President of Nigeria
brings Igbos much closer to consideration for Presidency either in
2023 or 2027. For a people who believe that they have been
short-changed by other Nigerians and that the civil war has not
actually ended, the possibility of one of their own returning to
the Presidency, 35 years after Ekwueme, is bound to promote a sense
of belonging. By choosing an Igbo man, Atiku is also exploiting
prevailing sentiments in Igboland. The average Igbo, either in the
South East or in diaspora, is certainly not impressed by the Buhari
administration.

The circumstances of Operation Crocodile Tears and the crushing
of the rebellion of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra Movement
(IPOB), pitched Igbos against Buhari. Atiku is seeking to bring
them back into the fold. Call it opportunism, but that is politics.
A Yoruba running mate would have looked like the Buhari template.
Atiku also probably knows that the Yoruba in the South West do not
always vote as a bloc and that the South West is far more divided
today than ever. The electoral value of the Yoruba man, Professor
Yemi Osinbajo, who is Buhari’s running mate for now, except he
changes him, lies more in his being part of a political group in
the South West, and right now, even that group is divided, it has
lost part of its grip, and its leader is fighting many political
battles of his own. An Igbo running mate can guarantee bloc Igbo
voting, in Igboland and from Igbos who are all over Nigeria. The
votes may not necessarily be for Peter Obi as a person but for the
Igbo nationalistic interest.

I say this because I have heard some people say Peter Obi may
not even be able to deliver Anambra. I say to such persons that
even the incumbent Governor of Anambra, Willie Obiano of APGA, who
has issues with Peter Obi, or David Umahi, Ebonyi Governor (PDP)
and Chairman of the South East Governors Forum, would dread being
found out to be working against the possibility of an Igbo man
emerging again as Vice President of Nigeria. In terms of political
strategy, it can be taken for granted that the South South, still
angry over how the Buhari government has treated President Goodluck
Jonathan and others from that region, will also naturally vote en
masse against Buhari. Technically, Atiku may have locked down the
South South and the South East and can be sure of substantial votes
from the South West where his promise of restructuring resonates
well with the socio-cultural and political elite.

But why Peter Obi? Obi, Governor of Anambra State for eight
years, survivor of election battles, has proven himself to be an
astute politician and leader. As Governor, he blocked the leaky
buckets. He reduced wastages and leakages. He led by example. He
served the people. He left a healthy balance behind in the
treasury. He was known across the South East as Peter the Rock or
Okwute, and he more than any other former Governor has spent his
time out of office, to prepare himself for a bigger role in
Nigeria. He didn’t disappear from the radar. He didn’t take the
option of going to the Senate which has become a retirement home
for former Governors who go there to sleep and snore during plenary
and collect heavy retirement benefits for saying nothing.

Peter Obi returned to school. He chose the lecture circuit where
he shared his experience as Governor with Nigerians, mostly young
Nigerians. He was always on point: he preached good governance,
prudence, accountability and gave personal examples. He granted the
media access to him and he granted interviews as frequently as he
could. He became an analyst and something slightly close to being a
public intellectual. He built a public persona as someone who
understands business, politics, the economy and governance. He
attended international programmes and built a network of contacts.
He was my course mate at the Said Business School, University of
Oxford and I can attest that he can hold his own confidently in the
company of persons of extreme intelligence and superb skills. Above
all, he is humble and approachable. He can fit into a team. He is
young. He is also rich, but I hear he does not like to spend money!
He is a strong member of the Catholic Faith, and he bears the name
Peter. From what we know about him, his Peter will not deny Atiku
whenever the cock crows. He has recognition, respect and
relevance.

So, there you have it: the Atiku-Obi Presidential team of the
Peoples Democratic Party. Good to go. But how will Atiku handle the
North, his own political zone? That is the other question for
analysis to be addressed shortly.