Shinzo Abe wears a face mask as he enters a venue for his news
conference in Tokyo on May 25, 2020. – Japan lifted a nationwide
state of emergency over the coronavirus on May 25, gradually
reopening the world’s third-largest economy as government officials
warned caution was still necessary to prevent another wave. (Photo
by KIM KYUNG-HOON / POOL / AFP)
The race to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe kicked off
informally on Saturday, with several contenders announcing their
plans to stand; a day after Japan’s longest-serving leader
announced his resignation.
Abe said he was suffering a recurrence of ulcerative colitis,
the condition that forced him to cut short his first term in
office, but that he would stay on until his successor is
decided.
Exactly how the process will unfold was still unclear, with
local media reporting on Saturday that several options were being
considered.
Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party could opt for a more
traditional leadership election, involving lawmakers but also
members of the party nationwide.
But the urgency of the situation, as well as the constraints
imposed by the coronavirus outbreak, could see the party instead
opt to poll only its lawmakers and regional representatives — a
faster process.
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Resigning Japanese PM Abe
A decision on how the election will be held, and when, is
expected early next week, along with more clarity on who will stand
for the post.
A few would-be candidates have already thrown their hats into
the ring, including party policy chief Fumio Kishida, a
mild-mannered former foreign minister considered Abe’s personal
choice for successor, and ex-defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, who
is seen as more popular with voters but commands less party support
than some other candidates.
Finance Minister Taro Aso, himself a former prime minister and
long considered a likely successor to Abe, has announced he will
not stand.
Other possible candidates include powerful chief cabinet
secretary Yoshihide Suga, viewed by many as a frontrunner, and
current defence minister Taro Kono, a social-media-savvy former
foreign minister who is seen as something of a longshot.
One woman is among those expected to stand so far: Seiko Noda, a
former cabinet minister whose chances are thought to be slim.
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No Drastic Changes
Whoever comes out on top, analysts said, little major shift in
policy is expected.
“Key policies –- diplomacy and economic measures — won’t be
changed drastically,” Shinichi Nishikawa, a professor of political
science at Meiji University in Tokyo, told AFP.
“His successor could be a caretaker,” effectively, Nishikawa
added, given that the LDP will hold another leadership election in
September 2021, with general elections likely the following
month.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an honorary professor of international
politics at the University of Tokyo, said Abe’s successor would not
produce any surprises but would face “big challenges”.
Most immediate will be the ongoing response to the coronavirus
pandemic, with heavy criticism of Abe’s government so far for
policies viewed as contradictory and slow.
But there are also diplomatic challenges on the horizon,
including on relations with China.
Ties had been warming, but with rising tensions between Beijing
and Washington and concerns domestically about issues including the
coronavirus outbreak and the situation in Hong Kong, the next prime
minister faces a balancing act.
Abe is also leaving office with the issue of the Tokyo 2020
Olympics still unresolved. The Games were postponed by a year over
the pandemic and are now scheduled to open in July 2021, but
questions remain about whether the event can be held safely.
And the next prime minister will inherit an economy that had
swung into recession even before the coronavirus crisis hit and may
face further hits if additional waves of infection force business
shutdowns again this winter.
Tokyo markets slumped on Friday on news of Abe’s resignation but
recovered slightly before the end of trade, and economists said
disruption would be minimal because the economic policy was not
likely to change.
“We believe the current monetary easing policies and
expansionary fiscal policies will continue for the duration of the
Covid-19 pandemic,” wrote Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi
TRUST.
“Thus the impact on the market should be limited in the
mid-to-long term.”
AFP