President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has welcomed the findings of the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, affirming that the administration’s far-reaching policy choices are revitalizing the national economy and setting it on a trajectory of durable growth.
A critical milestone highlighted in the report is the stabilization of Nigeria’s poverty rate, which had not halted its upward trend since 2019. The financial institution anticipates a steady reduction in poverty as economic expansion increasingly outpaces demographic growth.
Nigeria recorded a 4.2 percent GDP growth rate during the first six months of 2026, advancing from 3.9 percent during the corresponding timeframe in 2025, even amid headwinds from conflicts across the Middle East. Over the 2026–2028 horizon, the World Bank projects an average annual growth rate of at least 4.4 percent.
Cost-of-living pressures have also abated significantly. Consumer price inflation contracted from 27.6 percent in January 2025 to 15.2 percent by December 2025. Although global energy price spikes tied to overseas tensions have somewhat slowed the downward trajectory, the Bank foresees inflation moderating toward roughly 12 percent by 2028.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves and external balances have demonstrated comparable strength. The current account surplus widened to $12.0 billion (amounting to 7.0 percent of GDP) during the first half of 2026, up from $8.6 billion a year prior. Concurrently, gross foreign exchange reserves climbed from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by late August 2026.
The assessment attributes these gains to policy adjustments instituted since 2023, which catalyzed a 69 percent real-term surge in federation receipts between 2023 and 2025, primarily empowering subnational entities. State governments utilized these inflows to boost real capital expenditures by 151 percent, channeling substantial funding into transportation networks, agriculture, power generation, and residential housing. Furthermore, 29 out of 33 states reoriented their budgets toward foundational economic infrastructure, while per-capita social outlays rose across all but one state.
Additional insights from the report reveal that:
- Internally generated revenues climbed in real terms across 31 of 35 states;
- Twenty-one states successfully reduced their debt-to-GDP obligations from 2021 through 2025;
- The federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 40.0 percent in 2025 down to 38.1 percent in 2026.
Tinubu noted that painful yet indispensable actions—such as eliminating the fuel subsidy, unifying exchange rates, and enforcing budget discipline—have expanded fiscal flexibility and unlocked funding for citizen-centered investments. While these dividends are beginning to materialize, the President emphasized that the administration’s primary focus remains on translating macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements for ordinary households, particularly through cheaper food and sustainable jobs for young Nigerians.
Reaffirming his administration’s pursuit of shared prosperity under the Renewed Hope Agenda, President Tinubu committed to expanding direct cash support beyond the 10 million households already covered, fast-tracking the adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG), raising agricultural yields, and broadening public access to healthcare and education. He also called on state leaders to manage increased revenue judiciously and praised the economic team, state governors, and partners for their dedication to national transformation.